Risk and Reward: The Science of Casino Blackjack

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Risk and Reward : The Science of Casino Blackjack

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Such information may include, but is not limited to, interests based on your cookies. According to the American Gaming Association, in the commercial casinos in the US served Gambling is such good business that despite reported negative impacts — such as increased poverty and unemployment , higher crime rates , and decreased property value in nearby neighborhoods — the state of Illinois early this year passed a law to allow slot machines in all establishments that sell alcohol.

As a general rule, we tend to repeat behavior that produces desirable results and avoid behaviors that result in loss. We repeat jokes that people laughed at, choose jobs that we enjoy and that pay the most money, and avoid behaviors that produce fines. Following this logic, one would expect a gambler to only play as long as they are winning and then cut their losses when they begin to lose. Yet gambling appears to operate differently; players play faster after losses and bet persistently regardless of the percentage of payback , magnitude of return , or the lack of winning entirely.

So what encourages gambling behavior if losing occurs more frequently, and payouts do not exceed buy-ins? One explanation is that gamblers poorly judge the actual probability of winning, even as their pile of tokens and coins dwindles before them. Some examples of this phenomenon can easily be seen in the language of gamblers. Gamblers will often say these things after an unusual series of outcomes, for example ten straight losses on red at roulette. It stems from a misunderstanding of how probabilities are assessed; in fact the outcome of the previous spin of the roulette wheel has no influence on the outcome of the next spin.

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Another example of how gamblers misjudge losing outcomes can be seen when individuals respond to losses that are similar in appearance to a win. Winning and almost winning are such similar events to many people that they respond in the same way to both. People pause, for example, for longer after a win than a loss.

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Near-miss effects are not limited to outcomes that look similar to win. Outcomes that are closer to a win in a more abstract sense also cause a similar response. Near-miss outcomes are not the only form of almost winning that contributes to the behavioral confusion faced by gamblers.

Modern slot machines also present a myriad of features that are designed to confuse outcomes. Since slot machines have gone from the traditional 3-reel 1-line slot machine to the modern 5-reel video slot, often with 25 or more winning lines, near-miss outcomes have become almost unidentifiable from other losing outcomes.

By encouraging individuals to play on more than one line, casinos have created a scenario where players are awarded a win on almost every spin.

Despite the increased frequency of winning, the proportion of money returned is often far less than the entire bet, such as winning 10c on a 50c bet. Since noticing near-misses on modern slot machines is difficult, game makers have incorporated other game features such as free-spin symbols, mini-games, and progressive awards, which create new near miss situations while often not guaranteeing any increased value of a win themselves.

For example, special symbols might be placed on the reels that provide free spins whenever three appear anywhere within the game screen. These symbols will often make a special sound, such as a loud thud when they land; and if two symbols land, many games will begin to play fast tempo music, display flashing lights around the remaining reels, and accelerate the rate of spin to enhance the saliency of the event.